November 2d, is getting closer and the political picture is becoming clearer. First of all the democratic state rep candidates for our district (district 13) are some of the friendliest and best candidates that have run for these seats in a long time, that is to their credit. The republicans are divided and appear to be lacking a clear message or vision for the future or they are just not articulating it.
GOVERNORS’S RACE: John Lynch is the embedded politician with the backing of a bunch of special interest groups from gay marriage to the various police groups with the power of the incumbency. He is going for an unprecedented 4th term. On the other hand we have a feisty John Stephen who I don’t think is impressed the Lynch’s support, record, or polling numbers. As best as I can figure the polling numbers are closer than we think, in the 6 or so point range, which is quite good at this point in the election. It only takes 3 days to win or lose an election. Stephen can win.
GOVERNOR’S COUNCIL RACE: Bev Hollingworh is well thought of, respected and is in a job where she doesn’t have to vote on gay rights, budgets, abortion, gun rights, etc. She just keeps the governor on the straight and narrow and is another conduit for her constituents to state government. She does not play politics and represents her constituents irregardless of their political party; she is caring and respected. Chris Sununu is a smart young man with a recognized name and has a hard time attacking Bev’s record of constituent support and just being liked. I think Bev will hold onto her seat.
STATE SENATE: Although Russ Prescott has been doing an admirable job campaigning and holding his own in candidate forums, Maggie has matured as a speaker and politician and is going to be tough to beat. I’ve been told that insider polls show Maggie is vulnerable; but, the question is too who. I think Maggie will hold on to her seat.
STATE REPS RACE: Where do we start? The democrats have the best field of candidates they have had in years. The republicans are struggling for control of the party, process and candidates. In other words divided and looking like rookies, Oh, I think they are. Although both Matt and I are running for state rep, we are not part of the tri’town debacle and have a totally different philosophy of our constituents first. It is always hard to take on the entrenched establishment and realize if we can’t get bought off, scared off, what is left, try calling us names. If that doesn’t work, tear down our signs and call us more names. Matt and I are running our own campaign independent of the establishment; the voters are our campaign staff and call the shots and the direction that we will go.
There are some good people running for state rep that are republicans; but, they are too new to the process to know how to think independently. BEST GUESS: 4 and 4, 4 republicans and 4 democrats in this race. The democrats are predicting 8 & 2; but, I think it will be 4&4 or 5-3 with 5 republicans.
As the races tighten my predictions might change based on proposed voter turnout and I will try to stay on top of the projections.